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Level 6/10

Last Chance

Mahanga, New Zealand

🪨Rocks👊Localism

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Fast, hollow left down a boulder-lined point on the Mahia Peninsula's east coast near Mahanga, the spot to check when nothing else is working; best on a mid-sized NE swell around mid tide. Localism has been reported, so keep groups small. It works best on an ENE swell with W winds around mid tide. Watch for: boulders; localism.

Last Chance surf forecast

Model forecast for swell, wind and tide.

10-Day Forecast

Today20

Fair

1.4mSSE@14s

11km/h

1.4m@14s

11km/h

Wed21

Poor

0.9mSSE@10s

5km/h

0.9m@10s

5km/h

Thu22

Fair

1.0mSSE@14s

8km/h

1.0m@14s

8km/h

Fri23

Poor

0.6mS@10s

8km/h

0.6m@10s

8km/h

Sat24

Poor

0.6mS@10s

5km/h

0.6m@10s

5km/h

Sun25

Poor

0.6mS@13s

6km/h

0.6m@13s

6km/h

Mon26

Poor

0.5mSSW@12s

4km/h

0.5m@12s

4km/h

Tue27

Poor

0.4mNE@11s

13km/h

0.4m@11s

13km/h

Wed28

Poor

0.6mS@6s

6km/h

0.6m@6s

6km/h

Thu29

Poor

0.4mS@8s

12km/h

0.4m@8s

12km/h

5+ days out, less certain

View 2-year historical scores →

Today's ConditionsToday's Conditions

Find Flights

Best session: MorningAM 13 km/h · PM 10 km/h · Tide at 6am (0.1m)

Swell

1.4m

SSE(161°)

Score: 15/25

Period

14s

Groundswell

Score: 25/25

Wind

11km/h

S(181°)

Score: 11/25

Weather

15°C

0.0mm62%

First light 5:45amSunrise 6:15amSunset 7:31pmLast light 8:01pm

Windswell

—

Secondary

0.3m

Confidence

100%

Location & Conditions

Loading map...

Swell1.4m @14s SSE outside window

Wind11 km/h S cross-shore

SwellWind: Offshore Cross OnshoreShaded = inside ideal window

Showing forecast for today · all day

Hourly Forecast, Tide & Strike Windows

Strike window: 9:39am–12:31pm · risingStrike window: 1:40–4:29pm · droppingIdeal tide: mid

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

6am

9am

12pm

3pm

6pm

°C

8°

14°

18°

15°

9°

16°

20°

18°

16°

11°

17°

20°

21°

20°

11°

19°

20°

19°

17°

11°

19°

25°

27°

24°

11°

16°

21°

18°

9°

13°

21°

23°

21°

15°

17°

20°

19°

13°

16°

20°

21°

22°

16°

20°

24°

23°

20°

2m1.0

sec

14s

10s

14s

10s

13s

12s

11s

swell

windkm/h

11g23

14g33

10g27

12g32

8g27

2g9

2g10

7g22

9g26

5g19

2g6

7g19

10g28

6g20

9g20

3g14

8g25

9g29

7g29

7g18

4g18

3g17

7g22

6g25

2g11

5g17

8g24

7g24

5g21

4g11

4g13

3g17

4g24

7g32

8g30

13g37

21g52

14g56

10g54

4g19

8g21

9g29

6g30

2g25

5g15

10g25

17g39

16g45

11g45

tidem

12:46am1.1m

6:57am0.1m

1:05pm1.1m

7:34pm0.1m

1:35am1.0m

7:47am0.1m

1:57pm1.2m

8:24pm0.1m

2:25am1.1m

8:30am0.1m

2:45pm1.2m

9:10pm0.1m

3:10am1.1m

9:20am0.1m

3:30pm1.2m

9:54pm0.0m

4:00am1.1m

10:07am0.1m

4:18pm1.3m

4:48am1.2m

10:58am0.1m

5:10pm1.3m

5:37am1.4m

11:50am0.0m

6:02pm1.4m

6:26am1.5m

12:43pm0.0m

6:53pm1.5m

1:03am0.0m

7:17am1.6m

1:36pm0.0m

7:45pm1.5m

1:54am0.0m

8:10am1.7m

Ideal tide (from tide preference)Strike windowNight

Tide times today

12:46 am

High · 1.07m

6:57 am

Low · 0.14m

1:05 pm

High · 1.14m

7:34 pm

Low · 0.07m

Times shown in spot-local time.

Strike Score Breakdown

Fair

Components

Swell Direction4/25

Swell Size15/25

Swell Period25/25

Wind11/25

Raw Score55/100

Adjustments

Wind History-1

💨 Gusty Wind-4

Adjusted Score50/100

Confidence

Multiplier×1.00

Final Score50

Plan Your Strike

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Location & Conditions

Loading map...

Swell1.4m @14s SSE outside window

Wind11 km/h S cross-shore

SwellWind: Offshore Cross OnshoreShaded = inside ideal window

Showing forecast for today · all day

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Spot Details

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Swell Requirements

Optimal direction: ENE (60°)
Direction range: 20° - 150°
Size range: 0.9m - 4.3m
Ideal size: 2.4m - 3.5m
Height multiplier: 0.97×
Ideal period: 12s+

Wind Requirements

Optimal direction: W (270°)
Offshore range: 225° - 315°

Tide Requirements

Optimal tide: mid

Water temp

17°C

Wetsuit

3/2mm fullsuit

Difficulty

6/10

Crowd level

5/10

Frequently Asked Questions

What tide is best at Last Chance?

The Last Chance profile favors mid tide. Compare this preference with the forecast tide and local conditions before choosing a session.

What wind direction is offshore at Last Chance?

The Last Chance profile uses wind from W (270°) as its preferred direction, with an offshore range of 225° to 315°. Wind speed matters too: light winds outside that range can still produce surfable conditions, while strong offshore winds can make takeoffs difficult.

What swell size and direction work best at Last Chance?

The Last Chance scoring profile favors swell from ENE (20° to 150°), a swell-height range of 0.9m to 4.3m, and a reference period of 12s. These are model inputs, not guaranteed breaking-wave heights or a promise that the surf will suit every ability.