{
  "datasetVersion": "1.0",
  "extractionTimestamp": "2026-10-27T03:52:30.132Z",
  "generator": "scripts/generate-forecast-accuracy-study.ts",
  "sourceTable": "historical_daily_scores",
  "sourceFilter": "source='forecast_d0'",
  "runWindow": {
    "start": "2026-09-09",
    "end": "2026-10-17"
  },
  "targetWindow": {
    "start": "2026-09-10",
    "end": "2026-10-18"
  },
  "pairDefinition": "predicted_scores[k] from the run-date row versus final_score of the row for run date + k, same spot, k = 1..9. Each date's row holds the last successful prewarm run of that date (05:50 or 17:50 UTC).",
  "verificationTarget": "The settled day-0 Strike Score: the same model pipeline's reading for that day. Not an independent observation of surf conditions.",
  "persistenceBaseline": "The run date's own day-0 score used as the forecast for run date + k.",
  "scoreThresholds": {
    "good": 65,
    "firing": 80,
    "epic": 95
  },
  "minimumPredictedFiringPairsForGroupComparison": 100,
  "unknownSpotRowsSkipped": 0,
  "caveats": [
    "Measures how much a forecast changes before the day arrives, against the same pipeline's day-of reading. Real-world error versus what surfers see is larger.",
    "One 40-day window in northern autumn and southern spring; other seasons may differ.",
    "Starts after the 8 Sep 2026 scoring-engine change so all pairs share one engine.",
    "Stale, seed and errored spots are skipped by the archive writer, so coverage is not perfectly balanced.",
    "Nearby spots share swell and weather systems; pairs are not independent.",
    "Tide adjustments are calibrated only for Australian spots."
  ],
  "files": {
    "surf-forecast-accuracy-2026-leads.csv": {
      "sha256": "c1623d22495ad56516be5349b7f9da1a4fac3b13e08d9de9433080b73d6f6439"
    },
    "surf-forecast-accuracy-2026-groups.csv": {
      "sha256": "4eca997648edd87e2e4b7e0d6d0b90aced1ecd6502f440f1ec19faf423582486"
    },
    "surf-forecast-accuracy-2026-spots.csv": {
      "sha256": "043f95a7ebe71639188e9067c535e5693f8628c3d41975aebd193df83189b926"
    }
  }
}