Surf Forecast for Astillero
type: Dataset
description: 10-day surf forecast with Strike Scores for Astillero, Carazo, Nicaragua
about: Astillero
  type: TouristAttraction
  geo: GeoCoordinates
    latitude: 11.5059
    longitude: -86.1748
  description: Astillero is Nicaragua's powerful rivermouth discovery—a hollow beachbreak in a fishing village that can hold waves up to 8 feet and beyond. The river constantly replenishes the sandbars, creating hollow peaks with rights typically outperforming lefts. The wave is known for its hollow barrels, double-overhead days, and point break sections that demand experienced surfers. What makes Astillero special is the combination of quality waves and authentic Nicaragua: no crowds, warm water, a working fishing village, and perfect conditions when the swell hits. 4WD access adds to the adventure.
summary:
  best day:
    date: 2026-08-08
    score: 54
    category: Fair
    explanation: Best day in the forecast: 2026-08-08 with a score of 54/100 (Fair)
  firing days count: 0
  overall recommendation: Poor conditions overall: Average score 41/100. Look for spots with better forecasts.
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-04
  day index: 0
  strike score:
    final score: 41
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 16
        out of: 25
        explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 191° is 14° off optimal 205°, workable but not ideal.
      swell size:
        score: 9
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 1.0m is 1.1m from ideal 2.1m.
      swell period:
        score: 4
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 11s is below minimum 12s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 20
        out of: 25
        explanation: Strong offshore: 24 km/h from 66° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: 6
        groomed: true
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: -3
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Astillero. Either swell direction (191°), size (1.0m), or wind (24 km/h from 66°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 1
      height ft: 3.3
      direction degrees: 191
      direction cardinal: S
      period s: 11
      explanation: 1.0m (3.3ft) swell from 191° (S) at 11s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 24
      speed mph: 14.9
      direction degrees: 66
      direction cardinal: ENE
      explanation: 24 km/h (15 mph) from 66° (ENE)
    secondary swell:
      height m: 0.5
      direction degrees: 227
      direction cardinal: SW
      period s: 12
    windswell:
      height m: 0.5
      period s: 2
      explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-05
  day index: 1
  strike score:
    final score: 35
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 14
        out of: 25
        explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 188° is 17° off optimal 205°, workable but not ideal.
      swell size:
        score: 9
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 0.9m is 1.3m from ideal 2.1m.
      swell period:
        score: 1
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 8s is below minimum 12s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 19
        out of: 25
        explanation: Strong offshore: 25 km/h from 69° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: 6
        groomed: true
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: -3
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Astillero. Either swell direction (188°), size (0.9m), or wind (25 km/h from 69°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.9
      height ft: 3.0
      direction degrees: 188
      direction cardinal: S
      period s: 8
      explanation: 0.9m (3.0ft) swell from 188° (S) at 8s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 25
      speed mph: 15.5
      direction degrees: 69
      direction cardinal: ENE
      explanation: 25 km/h (16 mph) from 69° (ENE)
    windswell:
      height m: 0.5
      period s: 2
      explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-06
  day index: 2
  strike score:
    final score: 35
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 0.95
    confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 14
        out of: 25
        explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 188° is 17° off optimal 205°, workable but not ideal.
      swell size:
        score: 9
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 0.9m is 1.3m from ideal 2.1m.
      swell period:
        score: 1
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 8s is below minimum 12s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 21
        out of: 25
        explanation: Strong offshore: 24 km/h from 76° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: 6
        groomed: true
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: -3
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Astillero. Either swell direction (188°), size (0.9m), or wind (24 km/h from 76°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.9
      height ft: 3.0
      direction degrees: 188
      direction cardinal: S
      period s: 8
      explanation: 0.9m (3.0ft) swell from 188° (S) at 8s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 24
      speed mph: 14.9
      direction degrees: 76
      direction cardinal: ENE
      explanation: 24 km/h (15 mph) from 76° (ENE)
    secondary swell:
      height m: 0.4
      direction degrees: 222
      direction cardinal: SW
      period s: 15
    windswell:
      height m: 0.6
      period s: 3
      explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)
provider: Strike Mission
date published: 2026-08-05T03:09:23.852Z
temporal coverage: 2026-08-04/2026-08-13
data sources: Open-Meteo Marine API (swell/wave data)
data sources: Open-Meteo Weather API (wind/weather data)

date: 2026-08-07
day index: 3
strike score:
  final score: 53
  category: Fair
  category emoji: 😐
  confidence: 0.92
  confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 15
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 220° is 15° off optimal 205°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 5
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.7m is below minimum 0.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 14
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 14s meets minimum 12s but below ideal 16s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 17
      out of: 25
      explanation: Strong offshore: 28 km/h from 69° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 6
      groomed: true
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -7
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -7 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Surfable but not special at Astillero. The 0.7m swell from 220° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.7
    height ft: 2.3
    direction degrees: 220
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 14
    explanation: 0.7m (2.3ft) swell from 220° (SW) at 14s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 28
    speed mph: 17.4
    direction degrees: 69
    direction cardinal: ENE
    explanation: 28 km/h (17 mph) from 69° (ENE)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.5
    direction degrees: 186
    direction cardinal: S
    period s: 11
  windswell:
    height m: 0.8
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-08
day index: 4
strike score:
  final score: 54
  category: Fair
  category emoji: 😐
  confidence: 0.89
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 19
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 213° is 8° off optimal 205°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 9
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.0m is 1.1m from ideal 2.1m.
    swell period:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 13s meets minimum 12s but below ideal 16s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 18
      out of: 25
      explanation: Strong offshore: 26 km/h from 68° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 6
      groomed: true
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -3
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Surfable but not special at Astillero. The 1.0m swell from 213° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1
    height ft: 3.3
    direction degrees: 213
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 13
    explanation: 1.0m (3.3ft) swell from 213° (SSW) at 13s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 26
    speed mph: 16.2
    direction degrees: 68
    direction cardinal: ENE
    explanation: 26 km/h (16 mph) from 68° (ENE)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.5
    direction degrees: 226
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 9
  windswell:
    height m: 0.6
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-09
day index: 5
strike score:
  final score: 42
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.86
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 15
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 220° is 15° off optimal 205°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 9
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 0.9m is 1.3m from ideal 2.1m.
    swell period:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 13s meets minimum 12s but below ideal 16s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 17
      out of: 25
      explanation: Strong offshore: 28 km/h from 71° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 6
      groomed: true
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Astillero. Either swell direction (220°), size (0.9m), or wind (28 km/h from 71°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.9
    height ft: 3.0
    direction degrees: 220
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 13
    explanation: 0.9m (3.0ft) swell from 220° (SW) at 13s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 28
    speed mph: 17.4
    direction degrees: 71
    direction cardinal: ENE
    explanation: 28 km/h (17 mph) from 71° (ENE)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.5
    direction degrees: 198
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 10
  windswell:
    height m: 0.8
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-10
day index: 6
strike score:
  final score: 35
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.83
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 13
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 225° is 20° off optimal 205°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 1.3m from ideal 2.1m.
    swell period:
      score: 6
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 12s meets minimum 12s but below ideal 16s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 17
      out of: 25
      explanation: Strong offshore: 28 km/h from 68° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 6
      groomed: true
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Astillero. Either swell direction (225°), size (0.8m), or wind (28 km/h from 68°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.8
    height ft: 2.6
    direction degrees: 225
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 12
    explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 225° (SW) at 12s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 28
    speed mph: 17.4
    direction degrees: 68
    direction cardinal: ENE
    explanation: 28 km/h (17 mph) from 68° (ENE)
  windswell:
    height m: 0.7
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-11
day index: 7
strike score:
  final score: 34
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 14
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 223° is 18° off optimal 205°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 1.3m from ideal 2.1m.
    swell period:
      score: 4
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 11s is below minimum 12s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 17
      out of: 25
      explanation: Strong offshore: 29 km/h from 68° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 6
      groomed: true
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Astillero. Either swell direction (223°), size (0.8m), or wind (29 km/h from 68°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.8
    height ft: 2.6
    direction degrees: 223
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 11
    explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 223° (SW) at 11s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 29
    speed mph: 18.0
    direction degrees: 68
    direction cardinal: ENE
    explanation: 29 km/h (18 mph) from 68° (ENE)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.5
    direction degrees: 223
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 16
  windswell:
    height m: 0.8
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-12
day index: 8
strike score:
  final score: 44
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 21
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 200° is 5° off optimal 205°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 3
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.6m is below minimum 0.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 23
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good period: 15s is 94% of ideal 16s. Clean, powerful groundswell.
    wind:
      score: 18
      out of: 25
      explanation: Strong offshore: 27 km/h from 68° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 6
      groomed: true
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Astillero. Either swell direction (200°), size (0.6m), or wind (27 km/h from 68°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.6
    height ft: 2.0
    direction degrees: 200
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 15
    explanation: 0.6m (2.0ft) swell from 200° (SSW) at 15s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 27
    speed mph: 16.8
    direction degrees: 68
    direction cardinal: ENE
    explanation: 27 km/h (17 mph) from 68° (ENE)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.5
    direction degrees: 210
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 13
  windswell:
    height m: 0.6
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-13
day index: 9
strike score:
  final score: 35
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 12
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 184° is 21° off optimal 205°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 5
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.7m is below minimum 0.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 13s meets minimum 12s but below ideal 16s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 18
      out of: 25
      explanation: Strong offshore: 26 km/h from 67° (ENE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 6
      groomed: true
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: +6 points: Multiple days of offshore wind have groomed the ocean surface, creating ultra-clean conditions.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Astillero. Either swell direction (184°), size (0.7m), or wind (26 km/h from 67°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.7
    height ft: 2.3
    direction degrees: 184
    direction cardinal: S
    period s: 13
    explanation: 0.7m (2.3ft) swell from 184° (S) at 13s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 26
    speed mph: 16.2
    direction degrees: 67
    direction cardinal: ENE
    explanation: 26 km/h (16 mph) from 67° (ENE)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.4
    direction degrees: 223
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 16
  windswell:
    height m: 0.6
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

Strike Mission
type: Organization