Surf Forecast for Praia do Tonel
type: Dataset
description: 10-day surf forecast with Strike Scores for Praia do Tonel, Sagres, Portugal
about: Praia do Tonel
  type: TouristAttraction
  geo: GeoCoordinates
    latitude: 37.0067
    longitude: -8.9417
  description: Praia do Tonel is where Europe ends—a dramatic beach break beneath the historic Sagres Fortress at the southwestern tip of the continent where Prince Henry the Navigator once plotted explorations. The wave offers a fun left point and beach break peaks in a setting of incomparable beauty and historical weight. Less crowded than Portugal's more famous northern breaks, Tonel rewards those who venture to the Algarve's wild west coast with quality waves and the sense of surfing at the edge of the known world. The sunsets here, as the Atlantic stretches toward America, are unforgettable.
summary:
  best day:
    date: 2026-08-04
    score: 21
    category: Poor
    explanation: Best day in the forecast: 2026-08-04 with a score of 21/100 (Poor)
  firing days count: 0
  overall recommendation: Poor conditions overall: Average score 6/100. Look for spots with better forecasts.
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-04
  day index: 0
  strike score:
    final score: 21
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 24
        out of: 25
        explanation: Perfect alignment: Swell from 289° is within 5° of optimal 290°.
      swell size:
        score: 9
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 1.0m is 0.9m from ideal 1.9m.
      swell period:
        score: 2
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 7s is below minimum 9s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 8
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 11 km/h from 319° (NW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: -11
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: true
        explanation: -11 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: 0
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (289°), size (1.0m), or wind (11 km/h from 319°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 1
      height ft: 3.3
      direction degrees: 289
      direction cardinal: WNW
      period s: 7
      peak period s: 7.2
      explanation: 1.0m (3.3ft) swell from 289° (WNW) at 7.2s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 11
      speed mph: 6.8
      direction degrees: 319
      direction cardinal: NW
      explanation: 11 km/h (7 mph) from 319° (NW)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-05
  day index: 1
  strike score:
    final score: 5
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 13
        out of: 25
        explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 310° is 20° off optimal 290°, workable but not ideal.
      swell size:
        score: 5
        out of: 25
        explanation: Too small: 0.7m is below minimum 0.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
      swell period:
        score: 9
        out of: 25
        explanation: Moderate period: 11s meets minimum 9s but below ideal 14s. Some groundswell energy present.
      wind:
        score: 1
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 21 km/h from 341° (NNW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: -4
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: -3
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (310°), size (0.7m), or wind (21 km/h from 341°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.7
      height ft: 2.3
      direction degrees: 310
      direction cardinal: NW
      period s: 10
      peak period s: 10.5
      explanation: 0.7m (2.3ft) swell from 310° (NW) at 10.5s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 21
      speed mph: 13.0
      direction degrees: 341
      direction cardinal: NNW
      explanation: 21 km/h (13 mph) from 341° (NNW)
    secondary swell:
      height m: 0.5
      direction degrees: 303
      direction cardinal: WNW
      period s: 7
    windswell:
      height m: 0.4
      period s: 2
      explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-06
  day index: 2
  strike score:
    final score: 0
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 0.95
    confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 8
        out of: 25
        explanation: Poor alignment: Swell from 325° is 35° off optimal 290°, barely within workable range 250°-330°.
      swell size:
        score: 5
        out of: 25
        explanation: Too small: 0.7m is below minimum 0.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
      swell period:
        score: 2
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 8s is below minimum 9s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 0
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 28 km/h from 345° (NNW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: -10
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: true
        explanation: -10 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: -10
        windswell degraded: true
        explanation: -10 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (325°), size (0.7m), or wind (28 km/h from 345°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.7
      height ft: 2.3
      direction degrees: 325
      direction cardinal: NW
      period s: 8
      peak period s: 7.6
      explanation: 0.7m (2.3ft) swell from 325° (NW) at 7.6s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 28
      speed mph: 17.4
      direction degrees: 345
      direction cardinal: NNW
      explanation: 28 km/h (17 mph) from 345° (NNW)
    secondary swell:
      height m: 0.4
      direction degrees: 302
      direction cardinal: WNW
      period s: 6
    windswell:
      height m: 1.1
      period s: 4
      explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-07
  day index: 3
provider: Strike Mission
date published: 2026-08-04T23:09:14.028Z
temporal coverage: 2026-08-04/2026-08-13
data sources: Open-Meteo Marine API (swell/wave data)
data sources: Open-Meteo Weather API (wind/weather data)

final score: 0
category: Poor
category emoji: 💤
confidence: 0.92
confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
breakdown:
  swell direction:
    score: 10
    out of: 25
    explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 319° is 29° off optimal 290°, workable but not ideal.
  swell size:
    score: 8
    out of: 25
    explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 1.1m from ideal 1.9m.
  swell period:
    score: 4
    out of: 25
    explanation: Short period: 9s is below minimum 9s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
  wind:
    score: 0
    out of: 25
    explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 25 km/h from 345° (NNW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
adjustments:
  wind history:
    adjustment: -17
    groomed: false
    morning sickness: true
    explanation: -17 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
  windswell penalty:
    adjustment: -5
    windswell degraded: true
    explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
  secondary swell bonus:
    adjustment: 0
    explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (319°), size (0.8m), or wind (25 km/h from 345°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.

swell:
  height m: 0.8
  height ft: 2.6
  direction degrees: 319
  direction cardinal: NW
  period s: 9
  peak period s: 8.5
  explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 319° (NW) at 8.5s period
wind:
  speed kmh: 25
  speed mph: 15.5
  direction degrees: 345
  direction cardinal: NNW
  explanation: 25 km/h (16 mph) from 345° (NNW)
windswell:
  height m: 0.8
  period s: 3
  explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-08
day index: 4
strike score:
  final score: 0
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.89
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 23
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 287° is 3° off optimal 290°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.5m is below minimum 0.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 7
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 10s meets minimum 9s but below ideal 14s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 21 km/h from 338° (NNW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -21
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -21 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (287°), size (0.5m), or wind (21 km/h from 338°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.5
    height ft: 1.6
    direction degrees: 287
    direction cardinal: WNW
    period s: 10
    explanation: 0.5m (1.6ft) swell from 287° (WNW) at 10s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 21
    speed mph: 13.0
    direction degrees: 338
    direction cardinal: NNW
    explanation: 21 km/h (13 mph) from 338° (NNW)
  windswell:
    height m: 0.5
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-09
day index: 5
strike score:
  final score: 4
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.86
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 23
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 288° is 2° off optimal 290°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 9
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.0m is 0.9m from ideal 1.9m.
    swell period:
      score: 6
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 9s meets minimum 9s but below ideal 14s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 20 km/h from 334° (NNW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -21
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -21 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (288°), size (1.0m), or wind (20 km/h from 334°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1
    height ft: 3.3
    direction degrees: 288
    direction cardinal: WNW
    period s: 9
    explanation: 1.0m (3.3ft) swell from 288° (WNW) at 9s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 20
    speed mph: 12.4
    direction degrees: 334
    direction cardinal: NNW
    explanation: 20 km/h (12 mph) from 334° (NNW)
  windswell:
    height m: 0.4
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-10
day index: 6
strike score:
  final score: 5
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.83
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 16
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 304° is 14° off optimal 290°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 10
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.1m is 0.8m from ideal 1.9m.
    swell period:
      score: 4
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 8s is below minimum 9s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 19 km/h from 329° (NNW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -11
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -11 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -3
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (304°), size (1.1m), or wind (19 km/h from 329°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1.1
    height ft: 3.6
    direction degrees: 304
    direction cardinal: NW
    period s: 8
    explanation: 1.1m (3.6ft) swell from 304° (NW) at 8s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 19
    speed mph: 11.8
    direction degrees: 329
    direction cardinal: NNW
    explanation: 19 km/h (12 mph) from 329° (NNW)
  windswell:
    height m: 0.6
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-11
day index: 7
strike score:
  final score: 5
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Poor alignment: Swell from 326° is 36° off optimal 290°, barely within workable range 250°-330°.
    swell size:
      score: 5
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.7m is below minimum 0.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 4
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 8s is below minimum 9s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 6
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 12 km/h from 318° (NW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -4
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (326°), size (0.7m), or wind (12 km/h from 318°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.7
    height ft: 2.3
    direction degrees: 326
    direction cardinal: NW
    period s: 8
    explanation: 0.7m (2.3ft) swell from 326° (NW) at 8s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 12
    speed mph: 7.5
    direction degrees: 318
    direction cardinal: NW
    explanation: 12 km/h (7 mph) from 318° (NW)
  windswell:
    height m: 0.5
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-12
day index: 8
strike score:
  final score: 14
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 21
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 295° is 5° off optimal 290°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 9
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 0.9m is 1.0m from ideal 1.9m.
    swell period:
      score: 7
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 10s meets minimum 9s but below ideal 14s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 0
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 24 km/h from 348° (NNW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (295°), size (0.9m), or wind (24 km/h from 348°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.9
    height ft: 3.0
    direction degrees: 295
    direction cardinal: WNW
    period s: 10
    explanation: 0.9m (3.0ft) swell from 295° (WNW) at 10s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 24
    speed mph: 14.9
    direction degrees: 348
    direction cardinal: NNW
    explanation: 24 km/h (15 mph) from 348° (NNW)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.5
    direction degrees: 302
    direction cardinal: WNW
    period s: 7
  windswell:
    height m: 0.7
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-13
day index: 9
strike score:
  final score: 2
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 20
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 283° is 7° off optimal 290°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 9
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.0m is 0.9m from ideal 1.9m.
    swell period:
      score: 6
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 9s meets minimum 9s but below ideal 14s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 0
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 26 km/h from 347° (NNW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 45°-135°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -10
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -10 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Praia do Tonel. Either swell direction (283°), size (1.0m), or wind (26 km/h from 347°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1
    height ft: 3.3
    direction degrees: 283
    direction cardinal: WNW
    period s: 9
    explanation: 1.0m (3.3ft) swell from 283° (WNW) at 9s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 26
    speed mph: 16.2
    direction degrees: 347
    direction cardinal: NNW
    explanation: 26 km/h (16 mph) from 347° (NNW)
  windswell:
    height m: 0.8
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

Strike Mission
type: Organization