Surf Forecast for Rio Nexpa
type: Dataset
description: 10-day surf forecast with Strike Scores for Rio Nexpa, Michoacan Coast, Mexico
about: Rio Nexpa
  type: TouristAttraction
  geo: GeoCoordinates
    latitude: 18
    longitude: -102.75
  description: Rio Nexpa is one of Mexico's premier left point breaks, a long cobblestone rivermouth wave that lights up with SW swells. The wave offers occasionally barreling sections combined with long, workable walls that allow for extended rides. The small surf village that has grown up around the break maintains a laid-back vibe, making it a popular destination for surfers looking to escape crowds while still finding quality waves. When it's on, Nexpa delivers some of the best lefts in mainland Mexico.
summary:
  best day:
    date: 2026-08-07
    score: 71
    category: Good
    explanation: Best day in the forecast: 2026-08-07 with a score of 71/100 (Good)
  firing days count: 0
  overall recommendation: Poor conditions overall: Average score 48/100. Look for spots with better forecasts.
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-04
  day index: 0
  strike score:
    final score: 48
    category: Fair
    category emoji: 😐
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 7
        out of: 25
        explanation: Poor alignment: Swell from 176° is 39° off optimal 215°, barely within workable range 200°-230°.
      swell size:
        score: 8
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 0.9m is 1.0m from ideal 1.9m.
      swell period:
        score: 21
        out of: 25
        explanation: Good period: 14s is 93% of ideal 15s. Clean, powerful groundswell.
      wind:
        score: 15
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 184° (S). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: 0
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: 0
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 0.9m swell from 176° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.9
      height ft: 3.0
      direction degrees: 176
      direction cardinal: S
      period s: 14
      explanation: 0.9m (3.0ft) swell from 176° (S) at 14s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 7
      speed mph: 4.3
      direction degrees: 184
      direction cardinal: S
      explanation: 7 km/h (4 mph) from 184° (S)
    secondary swell:
      height m: 0.6
      direction degrees: 225
      direction cardinal: SW
      period s: 11
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-05
  day index: 1
  strike score:
    final score: 24
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 9
        out of: 25
        explanation: Poor alignment: Swell from 184° is 31° off optimal 215°, barely within workable range 200°-230°.
      swell size:
        score: 9
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 1.1m is 0.8m from ideal 1.9m.
      swell period:
        score: 2
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 9s is below minimum 12s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 15
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 216° (SW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: 0
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: 0
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Rio Nexpa. Either swell direction (184°), size (1.1m), or wind (7 km/h from 216°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 1.1
      height ft: 3.6
      direction degrees: 184
      direction cardinal: S
      period s: 9
      explanation: 1.1m (3.6ft) swell from 184° (S) at 9s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 7
      speed mph: 4.3
      direction degrees: 216
      direction cardinal: SW
      explanation: 7 km/h (4 mph) from 216° (SW)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-06
  day index: 2
  strike score:
    final score: 26
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 0.95
    confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 8
        out of: 25
        explanation: Poor alignment: Swell from 179° is 36° off optimal 215°, barely within workable range 200°-230°.
      swell size:
        score: 8
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 0.9m is 1.0m from ideal 1.9m.
      swell period:
        score: 6
        out of: 25
        explanation: Moderate period: 12s meets minimum 12s but below ideal 15s. Some groundswell energy present.
      wind:
        score: 15
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 237° (WSW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: 0
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: 0
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Rio Nexpa. Either swell direction (179°), size (0.9m), or wind (7 km/h from 237°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.9
      height ft: 3.0
      direction degrees: 179
      direction cardinal: S
      period s: 12
      explanation: 0.9m (3.0ft) swell from 179° (S) at 12s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 7
      speed mph: 4.3
      direction degrees: 237
      direction cardinal: WSW
      explanation: 7 km/h (4 mph) from 237° (WSW)
    secondary swell:
      height m: 0.6
      direction degrees: 202
      direction cardinal: SSW
      period s: 14
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-07
  day index: 3
  strike score:
    final score: 71
    category: Good
    category emoji: ✅
    confidence: 0.92
    confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 19
        out of: 25
        explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 206° is 9° off optimal 215°, workable but not ideal.
      swell size:
        score: 10
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 1.2m is 0.8m from ideal 1.9m.
    summary: Good surfable conditions at Rio Nexpa. 1.2m swell from 206° with manageable wind. Solid session guaranteed.
provider: Strike Mission
date published: 2026-08-05T00:33:38.033Z
temporal coverage: 2026-08-04/2026-08-13
data sources: Open-Meteo Marine API (swell/wave data)
data sources: Open-Meteo Weather API (wind/weather data)

score: 25
out of: 25
explanation: Perfect period: 15s is at or above ideal 15s. Long-period groundswell with maximum power.

score: 20
out of: 25
explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 5 km/h from 118° (ESE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.

wind history:
  adjustment: 0
  groomed: false
  morning sickness: false
  explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
windswell penalty:
  adjustment: 0
  windswell degraded: false
  explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
secondary swell bonus:
  adjustment: 0
  explanation: No secondary swell bonus.

swell:
  height m: 1.2
  height ft: 3.9
  direction degrees: 206
  direction cardinal: SSW
  period s: 15
  explanation: 1.2m (3.9ft) swell from 206° (SSW) at 15s period
wind:
  speed kmh: 5
  speed mph: 3.1
  direction degrees: 118
  direction cardinal: ESE
  explanation: 5 km/h (3 mph) from 118° (ESE)
secondary swell:
  height m: 0.6
  direction degrees: 182
  direction cardinal: S
  period s: 7

date: 2026-08-08
day index: 4
strike score:
  final score: 58
  category: Fair
  category emoji: 😐
  confidence: 0.89
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 14
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 197° is 18° off optimal 215°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 12
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.5m is 0.4m from ideal 1.9m.
    swell period:
      score: 25
      out of: 25
      explanation: Perfect period: 16s is at or above ideal 15s. Long-period groundswell with maximum power.
    wind:
      score: 11
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 10 km/h from 276° (W). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 1.5m swell from 197° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1.5
    height ft: 4.9
    direction degrees: 197
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 16
    explanation: 1.5m (4.9ft) swell from 197° (SSW) at 16s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 10
    speed mph: 6.2
    direction degrees: 276
    direction cardinal: W
    explanation: 10 km/h (6 mph) from 276° (W)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.4
    direction degrees: 221
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 6

date: 2026-08-09
day index: 5
strike score:
  final score: 61
  category: Fair
  category emoji: 😐
  confidence: 0.86
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 13
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 196° is 19° off optimal 215°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 12
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.4m is 0.6m from ideal 1.9m.
    swell period:
      score: 25
      out of: 25
      explanation: Perfect period: 15s is at or above ideal 15s. Long-period groundswell with maximum power.
    wind:
      score: 15
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 156° (SSE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 1.4m swell from 196° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1.4
    height ft: 4.6
    direction degrees: 196
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 15
    explanation: 1.4m (4.6ft) swell from 196° (SSW) at 15s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 7
    speed mph: 4.3
    direction degrees: 156
    direction cardinal: SSE
    explanation: 7 km/h (4 mph) from 156° (SSE)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.4
    direction degrees: 177
    direction cardinal: S
    period s: 11

date: 2026-08-10
day index: 6
strike score:
  final score: 56
  category: Fair
  category emoji: 😐
  confidence: 0.83
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 12
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 192° is 23° off optimal 215°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 10
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.2m is 0.8m from ideal 1.9m.
    swell period:
      score: 21
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good period: 14s is 93% of ideal 15s. Clean, powerful groundswell.
    wind:
      score: 16
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 6 km/h from 230° (SW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 1.2m swell from 192° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1.2
    height ft: 3.9
    direction degrees: 192
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 14
    explanation: 1.2m (3.9ft) swell from 192° (SSW) at 14s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 6
    speed mph: 3.7
    direction degrees: 230
    direction cardinal: SW
    explanation: 6 km/h (4 mph) from 230° (SW)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.4
    direction degrees: 213
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 16

date: 2026-08-11
day index: 7
strike score:
  final score: 50
  category: Fair
  category emoji: 😐
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 14
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 197° is 18° off optimal 215°, workable but not ideal.
    swell size:
      score: 9
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.0m is 0.9m from ideal 1.9m.
    swell period:
      score: 21
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good period: 14s is 93% of ideal 15s. Clean, powerful groundswell.
    wind:
      score: 11
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 10 km/h from 272° (W). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 1.0m swell from 197° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1
    height ft: 3.3
    direction degrees: 197
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 14
    explanation: 1.0m (3.3ft) swell from 197° (SSW) at 14s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 10
    speed mph: 6.2
    direction degrees: 272
    direction cardinal: W
    explanation: 10 km/h (6 mph) from 272° (W)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.6
    direction degrees: 214
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 15

date: 2026-08-12
day index: 8
strike score:
  final score: 29
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Poor alignment: Swell from 181° is 34° off optimal 215°, barely within workable range 200°-230°.
    swell size:
      score: 10
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.2m is 0.8m from ideal 1.9m.
    swell period:
      score: 6
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 12s meets minimum 12s but below ideal 15s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 15
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 192° (SSW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Rio Nexpa. Either swell direction (181°), size (1.2m), or wind (7 km/h from 192°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1.2
    height ft: 3.9
    direction degrees: 181
    direction cardinal: S
    period s: 12
    explanation: 1.2m (3.9ft) swell from 181° (S) at 12s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 7
    speed mph: 4.3
    direction degrees: 192
    direction cardinal: SSW
    explanation: 7 km/h (4 mph) from 192° (SSW)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.7
    direction degrees: 214
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 14

date: 2026-08-13
day index: 9
strike score:
  final score: 59
  category: Fair
  category emoji: 😐
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 23
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 218° is 3° off optimal 215°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 5
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.8m is below minimum 0.9m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 25
      out of: 25
      explanation: Perfect period: 16s is at or above ideal 15s. Long-period groundswell with maximum power.
    wind:
      score: 13
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 8 km/h from 256° (WSW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 0.8m swell from 218° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.8
    height ft: 2.6
    direction degrees: 218
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 16
    explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 218° (SW) at 16s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 8
    speed mph: 5.0
    direction degrees: 256
    direction cardinal: WSW
    explanation: 8 km/h (5 mph) from 256° (WSW)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.6
    direction degrees: 216
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 16

Strike Mission
type: Organization