10-day surf forecast with Strike Scores for Rio Nexpa, Michoacan Coast, Mexico
Rio Nexpa is one of Mexico's premier left point breaks, a long cobblestone rivermouth wave that lights up with SW swells. The wave offers occasionally barreling sections combined with long, workable walls that allow for extended rides. The small surf village that has grown up around the break maintains a laid-back vibe, making it a popular destination for surfers looking to escape crowds while still finding quality waves. When it's on, Nexpa delivers some of the best lefts in mainland Mexico.
Best day in the forecast: 2026-08-07 with a score of 71/100 (Good)
Poor conditions overall: Average score 48/100. Look for spots with better forecasts.
Poor alignment: Swell from 176° is 39° off optimal 215°, barely within workable range 200°-230°.
Marginal size: 0.9m is 1.0m from ideal 1.9m.
Good period: 14s is 93% of ideal 15s. Clean, powerful groundswell.
Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 184° (S). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 0.9m swell from 176° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
0.9m (3.0ft) swell from 176° (S) at 14s period
Poor alignment: Swell from 184° is 31° off optimal 215°, barely within workable range 200°-230°.
Marginal size: 1.1m is 0.8m from ideal 1.9m.
Short period: 9s is below minimum 12s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 216° (SW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Poor conditions at Rio Nexpa. Either swell direction (184°), size (1.1m), or wind (7 km/h from 216°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
1.1m (3.6ft) swell from 184° (S) at 9s period
Poor alignment: Swell from 179° is 36° off optimal 215°, barely within workable range 200°-230°.
Moderate period: 12s meets minimum 12s but below ideal 15s. Some groundswell energy present.
Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 237° (WSW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Poor conditions at Rio Nexpa. Either swell direction (179°), size (0.9m), or wind (7 km/h from 237°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
0.9m (3.0ft) swell from 179° (S) at 12s period
Moderate alignment: Swell from 206° is 9° off optimal 215°, workable but not ideal.
Marginal size: 1.2m is 0.8m from ideal 1.9m.
Perfect period: 15s is at or above ideal 15s. Long-period groundswell with maximum power.
Onshore/cross-shore: 5 km/h from 118° (ESE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Good surfable conditions at Rio Nexpa. 1.2m swell from 206° with manageable wind. Solid session guaranteed.
1.2m (3.9ft) swell from 206° (SSW) at 15s period
Moderate alignment: Swell from 197° is 18° off optimal 215°, workable but not ideal.
Marginal size: 1.5m is 0.4m from ideal 1.9m.
Perfect period: 16s is at or above ideal 15s. Long-period groundswell with maximum power.
Onshore/cross-shore: 10 km/h from 276° (W). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 1.5m swell from 197° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
1.5m (4.9ft) swell from 197° (SSW) at 16s period
Moderate alignment: Swell from 196° is 19° off optimal 215°, workable but not ideal.
Marginal size: 1.4m is 0.6m from ideal 1.9m.
Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 156° (SSE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 1.4m swell from 196° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
1.4m (4.6ft) swell from 196° (SSW) at 15s period
Moderate alignment: Swell from 192° is 23° off optimal 215°, workable but not ideal.
Onshore/cross-shore: 6 km/h from 230° (SW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 1.2m swell from 192° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
1.2m (3.9ft) swell from 192° (SSW) at 14s period
Marginal size: 1.0m is 0.9m from ideal 1.9m.
Onshore/cross-shore: 10 km/h from 272° (W). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 1.0m swell from 197° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
1.0m (3.3ft) swell from 197° (SSW) at 14s period
Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
Poor alignment: Swell from 181° is 34° off optimal 215°, barely within workable range 200°-230°.
Onshore/cross-shore: 7 km/h from 192° (SSW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Poor conditions at Rio Nexpa. Either swell direction (181°), size (1.2m), or wind (7 km/h from 192°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
1.2m (3.9ft) swell from 181° (S) at 12s period
Good alignment: Swell from 218° is 3° off optimal 215°, still within prime range.
Too small: 0.8m is below minimum 0.9m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
Onshore/cross-shore: 8 km/h from 256° (WSW). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 0°-45°.
Surfable but not special at Rio Nexpa. The 0.8m swell from 218° is workable, but conditions aren't ideal. Fine if you're local, but not worth a dedicated trip.
0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 218° (SW) at 16s period
Open-Meteo Weather API (wind/weather data)