Surf Forecast for Ma'alaea
type: Dataset
description: 10-day surf forecast with Strike Scores for Ma'alaea, South Coast, Maui, USA
about: Ma'alaea
  type: TouristAttraction
  geo: GeoCoordinates
    latitude: 20.793
    longitude: -156.508
  description: Ma'alaea (Freight Trains) is considered the world's fastest rideable wave—a 150-300+ yard barrel that fires only a handful of times per year when huge south swells slip through the gap between Kahoolawe and Maui. When it runs, it's one of surfing's greatest spectacles.
summary:
  best day:
    date: 2026-08-12
    score: 30
    category: Poor
    explanation: Best day in the forecast: 2026-08-12 with a score of 30/100 (Poor)
  firing days count: 0
  overall recommendation: Poor conditions overall: Average score 12/100. Look for spots with better forecasts.
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-04
  day index: 0
  strike score:
    final score: 0
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 0
        out of: 25
        explanation: No alignment: Swell from 65° is outside workable range 160°-210°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
      swell size:
        score: 3
        out of: 25
        explanation: Too small: 1.4m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
      swell period:
        score: 4
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 12s is below minimum 14s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 13
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 10 km/h from 39° (NE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: 0
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: 0
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (65°), size (1.4m), or wind (10 km/h from 39°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 1.4
      height ft: 4.6
      direction degrees: 65
      direction cardinal: ENE
      period s: 12
      explanation: 1.4m (4.6ft) swell from 65° (ENE) at 12s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 10
      speed mph: 6.2
      direction degrees: 39
      direction cardinal: NE
      explanation: 10 km/h (6 mph) from 39° (NE)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-05
  day index: 1
  strike score:
    final score: 0
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 0
        out of: 25
        explanation: No alignment: Swell from 66° is outside workable range 160°-210°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
      swell size:
        score: 2
        out of: 25
        explanation: Too small: 1.0m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
      swell period:
        score: 4
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 12s is below minimum 14s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 5
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 14 km/h from 37° (NE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: 0
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: 0
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (66°), size (1.0m), or wind (14 km/h from 37°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 1
      height ft: 3.3
      direction degrees: 66
      direction cardinal: ENE
      period s: 12
      explanation: 1.0m (3.3ft) swell from 66° (ENE) at 12s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 14
      speed mph: 8.7
      direction degrees: 37
      direction cardinal: NE
      explanation: 14 km/h (9 mph) from 37° (NE)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-06
  day index: 2
  strike score:
    final score: 15
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 0.95
    confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 19
        out of: 25
        explanation: Moderate alignment: Swell from 181° is 9° off optimal 190°, workable but not ideal.
      swell size:
        score: 1
        out of: 25
        explanation: Too small: 0.6m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
      swell period:
        score: 2
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 10s is below minimum 14s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 9
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 12 km/h from 31° (NNE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: 0
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: false
        explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: 0
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (181°), size (0.6m), or wind (12 km/h from 31°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.6
      height ft: 2.0
      direction degrees: 181
      direction cardinal: S
      period s: 10
      explanation: 0.6m (2.0ft) swell from 181° (S) at 10s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 12
      speed mph: 7.5
      direction degrees: 31
      direction cardinal: NNE
      explanation: 12 km/h (7 mph) from 31° (NNE)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-07
  day index: 3
  strike score:
    final score: 15
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 0.92
    confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 23
        out of: 25
        explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 193° is 3° off optimal 190°, still within prime range.
      swell size:
        score: 1
        out of: 25
        explanation: Too small: 0.5m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
      swell period:
        score: 4
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 12s is below minimum 14s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 9
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 12 km/h from 35° (NE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
    summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (193°), size (0.5m), or wind (12 km/h from 35°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
provider: Strike Mission
date published: 2026-08-05T04:16:08.232Z
temporal coverage: 2026-08-04/2026-08-13
data sources: Open-Meteo Marine API (swell/wave data)
data sources: Open-Meteo Weather API (wind/weather data)

wind history:
  adjustment: 0
  groomed: false
  morning sickness: false
  explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
windswell penalty:
  adjustment: 0
  windswell degraded: false
  explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
secondary swell bonus:
  adjustment: 0
  explanation: No secondary swell bonus.

swell:
  height m: 0.5
  height ft: 1.6
  direction degrees: 193
  direction cardinal: SSW
  period s: 12
  explanation: 0.5m (1.6ft) swell from 193° (SSW) at 12s period
wind:
  speed kmh: 12
  speed mph: 7.5
  direction degrees: 35
  direction cardinal: NE
  explanation: 12 km/h (7 mph) from 35° (NE)

date: 2026-08-08
day index: 4
strike score:
  final score: 15
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.89
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 20
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 197° is 7° off optimal 190°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.6m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 11s is below minimum 14s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 9
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 12 km/h from 38° (NE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (197°), size (0.6m), or wind (12 km/h from 38°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.6
    height ft: 2.0
    direction degrees: 197
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 11
    explanation: 0.6m (2.0ft) swell from 197° (SSW) at 11s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 12
    speed mph: 7.5
    direction degrees: 38
    direction cardinal: NE
    explanation: 12 km/h (7 mph) from 38° (NE)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.4
    direction degrees: 130
    direction cardinal: SE
    period s: 7

date: 2026-08-09
day index: 5
strike score:
  final score: 13
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.86
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 21
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 195° is 5° off optimal 190°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.5m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 11s is below minimum 14s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 5
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 14 km/h from 44° (NE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (195°), size (0.5m), or wind (14 km/h from 44°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.5
    height ft: 1.6
    direction degrees: 195
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 11
    explanation: 0.5m (1.6ft) swell from 195° (SSW) at 11s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 14
    speed mph: 8.7
    direction degrees: 44
    direction cardinal: NE
    explanation: 14 km/h (9 mph) from 44° (NE)

date: 2026-08-10
day index: 6
strike score:
  final score: 15
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.83
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 23
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 193° is 3° off optimal 190°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.6m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 4
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 12s is below minimum 14s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 11
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 11 km/h from 39° (NE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (193°), size (0.6m), or wind (11 km/h from 39°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.6
    height ft: 2.0
    direction degrees: 193
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 12
    explanation: 0.6m (2.0ft) swell from 193° (SSW) at 12s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 11
    speed mph: 6.8
    direction degrees: 39
    direction cardinal: NE
    explanation: 11 km/h (7 mph) from 39° (NE)

date: 2026-08-11
day index: 7
strike score:
  final score: 15
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 23
      out of: 25
      explanation: Good alignment: Swell from 192° is 2° off optimal 190°, still within prime range.
    swell size:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.7m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 4
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 13s is below minimum 14s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 9
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 12 km/h from 38° (NE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (192°), size (0.7m), or wind (12 km/h from 38°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.7
    height ft: 2.3
    direction degrees: 192
    direction cardinal: SSW
    period s: 13
    explanation: 0.7m (2.3ft) swell from 192° (SSW) at 13s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 12
    speed mph: 7.5
    direction degrees: 38
    direction cardinal: NE
    explanation: 12 km/h (7 mph) from 38° (NE)

date: 2026-08-12
day index: 8
strike score:
  final score: 30
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 24
      out of: 25
      explanation: Perfect alignment: Swell from 189° is within 5° of optimal 190°.
    swell size:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 1.0m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 14
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 15s meets minimum 14s but below ideal 16s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 7
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 13 km/h from 43° (NE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (189°), size (1.0m), or wind (13 km/h from 43°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1
    height ft: 3.3
    direction degrees: 189
    direction cardinal: S
    period s: 15
    explanation: 1.0m (3.3ft) swell from 189° (S) at 15s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 13
    speed mph: 8.1
    direction degrees: 43
    direction cardinal: NE
    explanation: 13 km/h (8 mph) from 43° (NE)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.4
    direction degrees: 138
    direction cardinal: SE
    period s: 7

date: 2026-08-13
day index: 9
strike score:
  final score: 0
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Poor alignment: Swell from 224° is 34° off optimal 190°, barely within workable range 160°-210°.
    swell size:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.7m is below minimum 1.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 4
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 13s is below minimum 14s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 15 km/h from 38° (NE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 290°-10°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: 0
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: false
      explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: 0
      windswell degraded: false
      explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Ma'alaea. Either swell direction (224°), size (0.7m), or wind (15 km/h from 38°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.7
    height ft: 2.3
    direction degrees: 224
    direction cardinal: SW
    period s: 13
    explanation: 0.7m (2.3ft) swell from 224° (SW) at 13s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 15
    speed mph: 9.3
    direction degrees: 38
    direction cardinal: NE
    explanation: 15 km/h (9 mph) from 38° (NE)

Strike Mission
type: Organization