Surf Forecast for Apple Bay
type: Dataset
description: 10-day surf forecast with Strike Scores for Apple Bay, Tortola, British Virgin Islands
about: Apple Bay
  type: TouristAttraction
  geo: GeoCoordinates
    latitude: 18.4167
    longitude: -64.6833
  description: Apple Bay is the British Virgin Islands' most consistent surf spot—a reef break on Tortola's north shore that picks up more swell than anywhere else in the territory. When winter swells arrive, clean, fast waves peel along the reef, drawing the small but dedicated BVI surf community.
summary:
  best day:
    date: 2026-08-04
    score: 0
    category: Poor
    explanation: Best day in the forecast: 2026-08-04 with a score of 0/100 (Poor)
  firing days count: 0
  overall recommendation: Poor conditions overall: Average score 0/100. Look for spots with better forecasts.
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-04
  day index: 0
  strike score:
    final score: 0
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 0
        out of: 25
        explanation: No alignment: Swell from 75° is outside workable range 310°-10°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
      swell size:
        score: 8
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 0.8m from ideal 1.6m.
      swell period:
        score: 1
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 6s is below minimum 10s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 1
        out of: 25
        explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 22 km/h from 72° (ENE). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 100°-170°.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: -21
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: true
        explanation: -21 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: -3
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (75°), size (0.8m), or wind (22 km/h from 72°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.8
      height ft: 2.6
      direction degrees: 75
      direction cardinal: ENE
      period s: 6
      explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 75° (ENE) at 6s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 22
      speed mph: 13.7
      direction degrees: 72
      direction cardinal: ENE
      explanation: 22 km/h (14 mph) from 72° (ENE)
    windswell:
      height m: 0.4
      period s: 3
      explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-05
  day index: 1
  strike score:
    final score: 0
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 1
    confidence explanation: Very high confidence (0-1 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 0
        out of: 25
        explanation: No alignment: Swell from 58° is outside workable range 310°-10°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
      swell size:
        score: 8
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 0.8m from ideal 1.6m.
      swell period:
        score: 1
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 6s is below minimum 10s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 20
        out of: 25
        explanation: Strong offshore: 22 km/h from 113° (ESE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: -21
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: true
        explanation: -21 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: 0
        windswell degraded: false
        explanation: Groundswell-dominant conditions (clean, long-period waves).
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (58°), size (0.8m), or wind (22 km/h from 113°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.8
      height ft: 2.6
      direction degrees: 58
      direction cardinal: ENE
      period s: 6
      explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 58° (ENE) at 6s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 22
      speed mph: 13.7
      direction degrees: 113
      direction cardinal: ESE
      explanation: 22 km/h (14 mph) from 113° (ESE)
    windswell:
      height m: 0.3
      period s: 2
      explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-06
  day index: 2
  strike score:
    final score: 0
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 0.95
    confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
    breakdown:
      swell direction:
        score: 0
        out of: 25
        explanation: No alignment: Swell from 86° is outside workable range 310°-10°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
      swell size:
        score: 8
        out of: 25
        explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 0.8m from ideal 1.6m.
      swell period:
        score: 2
        out of: 25
        explanation: Short period: 8s is below minimum 10s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
      wind:
        score: 7
        out of: 25
        explanation: Strong offshore: 25 km/h from 103° (ESE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
    adjustments:
      wind history:
        adjustment: -11
        groomed: false
        morning sickness: true
        explanation: -11 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
      windswell penalty:
        adjustment: -5
        windswell degraded: true
        explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
      secondary swell bonus:
        adjustment: 0
        explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
    summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (86°), size (0.8m), or wind (25 km/h from 103°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
  conditions:
    swell:
      height m: 0.8
      height ft: 2.6
      direction degrees: 86
      direction cardinal: E
      period s: 8
      explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 86° (E) at 8s period
    wind:
      speed kmh: 25
      speed mph: 15.5
      direction degrees: 103
      direction cardinal: ESE
      explanation: 25 km/h (16 mph) from 103° (ESE)
    secondary swell:
      height m: 0.4
      direction degrees: 75
      direction cardinal: ENE
      period s: 5
    windswell:
      height m: 0.7
      period s: 3
      explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)
forecasts:
  date: 2026-08-07
  day index: 3
  strike score:
    final score: 0
    category: Poor
    category emoji: 💤
    confidence: 0.92
    confidence explanation: High confidence (2-3 day forecast)
    summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (74°), size (0.8m), or wind (26 km/h from 86°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
provider: Strike Mission
date published: 2026-08-05T03:12:32.688Z
temporal coverage: 2026-08-04/2026-08-13
data sources: Open-Meteo Marine API (swell/wave data)
data sources: Open-Meteo Weather API (wind/weather data)

swell direction:
  score: 0
  out of: 25
  explanation: No alignment: Swell from 74° is outside workable range 310°-10°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
swell size:
  score: 8
  out of: 25
  explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 0.8m from ideal 1.6m.
swell period:
  score: 2
  out of: 25
  explanation: Short period: 7s is below minimum 10s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
wind:
  score: 1
  out of: 25
  explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 26 km/h from 86° (E). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 100°-170°.

wind history:
  adjustment: -4
  groomed: false
  morning sickness: false
  explanation: No significant wind history adjustment.
windswell penalty:
  adjustment: -5
  windswell degraded: true
  explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
secondary swell bonus:
  adjustment: 0
  explanation: No secondary swell bonus.

swell:
  height m: 0.8
  height ft: 2.6
  direction degrees: 74
  direction cardinal: ENE
  period s: 7
  explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 74° (ENE) at 7s period
wind:
  speed kmh: 26
  speed mph: 16.2
  direction degrees: 86
  direction cardinal: E
  explanation: 26 km/h (16 mph) from 86° (E)
secondary swell:
  height m: 0.4
  direction degrees: 109
  direction cardinal: ESE
  period s: 5
windswell:
  height m: 0.7
  period s: 3
  explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-08
day index: 4
strike score:
  final score: 0
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.89
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 0
      out of: 25
      explanation: No alignment: Swell from 53° is outside workable range 310°-10°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
    swell size:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 0.8m from ideal 1.6m.
    swell period:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 6s is below minimum 10s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 29 km/h from 96° (E). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 100°-170°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -10
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -10 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -7
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -7 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (53°), size (0.8m), or wind (29 km/h from 96°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.8
    height ft: 2.6
    direction degrees: 53
    direction cardinal: NE
    period s: 6
    explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 53° (NE) at 6s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 29
    speed mph: 18.0
    direction degrees: 96
    direction cardinal: E
    explanation: 29 km/h (18 mph) from 96° (E)
  secondary swell:
    height m: 0.4
    direction degrees: 135
    direction cardinal: SE
    period s: 5
  windswell:
    height m: 0.9
    period s: 4
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-09
day index: 5
strike score:
  final score: 0
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.86
  confidence explanation: Moderate confidence (4-5 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 0
      out of: 25
      explanation: No alignment: Swell from 106° is outside workable range 310°-10°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
    swell size:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 0.8m from ideal 1.6m.
    swell period:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 7s is below minimum 10s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 0
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 33 km/h from 81° (E). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 100°-170°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -17
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -17 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -7
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -7 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (106°), size (0.8m), or wind (33 km/h from 81°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.8
    height ft: 2.6
    direction degrees: 106
    direction cardinal: ESE
    period s: 7
    explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 106° (ESE) at 7s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 33
    speed mph: 20.5
    direction degrees: 81
    direction cardinal: E
    explanation: 33 km/h (21 mph) from 81° (E)
  windswell:
    height m: 1
    period s: 4
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-10
day index: 6
strike score:
  final score: 0
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.83
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 0
      out of: 25
      explanation: No alignment: Swell from 79° is outside workable range 310°-10°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
    swell size:
      score: 11
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 1.1m is 0.5m from ideal 1.6m.
    swell period:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 8s is below minimum 10s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 30 km/h from 83° (E). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 100°-170°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -21
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -21 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -5
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -5 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (79°), size (1.1m), or wind (30 km/h from 83°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 1.1
    height ft: 3.6
    direction degrees: 79
    direction cardinal: E
    period s: 8
    explanation: 1.1m (3.6ft) swell from 79° (E) at 8s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 30
    speed mph: 18.6
    direction degrees: 83
    direction cardinal: E
    explanation: 30 km/h (19 mph) from 83° (E)
  windswell:
    height m: 0.8
    period s: 3
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-11
day index: 7
strike score:
  final score: 0
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Low confidence (6-7 day forecast)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Poor alignment: Swell from 36° is 56° off optimal 340°, barely within workable range 310°-10°.
    swell size:
      score: 8
      out of: 25
      explanation: Marginal size: 0.8m is 0.8m from ideal 1.6m.
    swell period:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 7s is below minimum 10s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 1
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 29 km/h from 81° (E). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 100°-170°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -21
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -21 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -7
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -7 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (36°), size (0.8m), or wind (29 km/h from 81°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.8
    height ft: 2.6
    direction degrees: 36
    direction cardinal: NE
    period s: 7
    explanation: 0.8m (2.6ft) swell from 36° (NE) at 7s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 29
    speed mph: 18.0
    direction degrees: 81
    direction cardinal: E
    explanation: 29 km/h (18 mph) from 81° (E)
  windswell:
    height m: 0.9
    period s: 4
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-12
day index: 8
strike score:
  final score: 0
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 0
      out of: 25
      explanation: No alignment: Swell from 67° is outside workable range 310°-10°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
    swell size:
      score: 5
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.7m is below minimum 0.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Short period: 7s is below minimum 10s. Windswell-dominated (choppy, weak waves).
    wind:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Onshore/cross-shore: 29 km/h from 94° (E). Destroying wave quality. Offshore range: 100°-170°.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -21
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -21 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -7
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -7 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (67°), size (0.7m), or wind (29 km/h from 94°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.7
    height ft: 2.3
    direction degrees: 67
    direction cardinal: ENE
    period s: 7
    explanation: 0.7m (2.3ft) swell from 67° (ENE) at 7s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 29
    speed mph: 18.0
    direction degrees: 94
    direction cardinal: E
    explanation: 29 km/h (18 mph) from 94° (E)
  windswell:
    height m: 0.9
    period s: 4
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

date: 2026-08-13
day index: 9
strike score:
  final score: 0
  category: Poor
  category emoji: 💤
  confidence: 0.8
  confidence explanation: Very low confidence (8-10 day forecast, conditions may change)
  breakdown:
    swell direction:
      score: 0
      out of: 25
      explanation: No alignment: Swell from 70° is outside workable range 310°-10°. Wrong swell direction for this spot.
    swell size:
      score: 2
      out of: 25
      explanation: Too small: 0.5m is below minimum 0.8m. Waves will be weak/mushy.
    swell period:
      score: 6
      out of: 25
      explanation: Moderate period: 10s meets minimum 10s but below ideal 14s. Some groundswell energy present.
    wind:
      score: 11
      out of: 25
      explanation: Strong offshore: 36 km/h from 110° (ESE). Grooming but may make paddling difficult.
  adjustments:
    wind history:
      adjustment: -21
      groomed: false
      morning sickness: true
      explanation: -21 points: Previous days of onshore wind left residual chop ("morning sickness"), reducing wave quality.
    windswell penalty:
      adjustment: -10
      windswell degraded: true
      explanation: -10 points: Short-period windswell is present, creating choppy, disorganized conditions.
    secondary swell bonus:
      adjustment: 0
      explanation: No secondary swell bonus.
  summary: Poor conditions at Apple Bay. Either swell direction (70°), size (0.5m), or wind (36 km/h from 110°) is unfavorable. Consider other spots or wait for better conditions.
conditions:
  swell:
    height m: 0.5
    height ft: 1.6
    direction degrees: 70
    direction cardinal: ENE
    period s: 10
    explanation: 0.5m (1.6ft) swell from 70° (ENE) at 10s period
  wind:
    speed kmh: 36
    speed mph: 22.4
    direction degrees: 110
    direction cardinal: ESE
    explanation: 36 km/h (22 mph) from 110° (ESE)
  windswell:
    height m: 1.4
    period s: 4
    explanation: Local wind-generated waves (choppy, short-period)

Strike Mission
type: Organization